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Thursday, March 31, 2016

Batch 56 Optimus Prime (Blue) Photos




Photos in advance of the public drop of the Optimus Prime, Batch 56, by Shoyoroll, courtesy of Shoyoroll Drama Free.

Instagram: @ShoyorollDramaFree

Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/ShoyorollDramaFree

Shoyoroll Stock Photos







Amateur Photos



















Saturday, March 12, 2016

Shoyoroll NoGi Shorts Size Chart


Click on the above image to enlarge.

To the best of our knowledge, Shoyoroll has never published a size chart for their nogi items. This chart above is our collective best-guess in converting their short sizes from XS to XXL to a waist measurement in inches.

Use this at your own risk. No guarantee or warranted is provided or implied.

If the shorts don't fit, you must acquit.

Friday, March 11, 2016

What Is My Gi Worth?



People ask me all the time, "How much is my gi worth?" or, "I want to sell my gi, how much should I ask?"

Given that the secondary market on some gis fluctuates all the time these are common questions to ask when you are not buying and selling gis on a daily basis. But the answer is never a specific dollar figure, as in, "Your gi is worth $225." It simply is not that straightforward.

The answer really is: "Well, it depends." But nobody wants that answer. So here is why it is, in fact, the true answer.



Any given gi at any given time is worth what someone else will pay for it. So if you are selling an Atama Mundial #9 that is brand new, in bag ("BNIB"), and those same gis are also in stock on Atama's website, then unless there are special circumstances it is highly unlikely that anyone will pay you more than the $200 retail price that they can purchase one for at www.AtamaUSA.com (or other Atama website worldwide). So that is pretty simple to figure out.



In fact, you will likely have to accept less than retail just because most people would prefer to purchase from the brand directly vs. an unknown individual if all other factors, including price, are the same. So in this case, if you want to sell your BNIB Atama, I'd say discount it by 10% to 20% off of retail, and that's what you should target. This is called: asset depreciation.

That philosophy applies to virtually every and any gi brand that has available stock. Where the secondary market comes into play in a big way is with older batches that are no longer available from the brand. And of course the granddaddy of the secondary market is Shoyoroll. CTRL Industries also has a strong following, but only a few specific older batches of their gis bring any real value (above retail) on the secondary market.
Without a doubt, Shoyoroll is the kingpin in the secondary market. So the focus of this blog post, and the brand that I get questioned about most of the time is Shoyoroll.

So the answer to the question ("How much is my gi worth?") depends on many factors, including the following:


  • How quickly you need or want to sell the gi.



  • How much time you are willing to spend ACTIVELY hunting down a buyer.



  • The size of the gi.

Additionally, as with many things in life there is a range of value for gis that depends on many factors which you, as a seller, do NOT control. Two of those listed above are in your control, but the financial means and motivation of the buyer, the abundance or lack thereof of competitive gis on the market are a few that you do not control but do greatly impact what someone is willing to pay for your gi.

Further Analysis

Let's look at each of these one at a time.

How quickly you need or want to sell the gi.

It would make sense that the more time that you have to find the "best" buyer for your gi increases the probability that you'll actually find him. If that is true, then the opposite would also be true in that the less time you have (or dedicate) towards finding the best buyer, the less your likelihood is going to be that you find him (and that he's ready to purchase) your gi.

In the past few years I've sold gis to buyers in Indonesia, Russia, Sweden, UK, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and the list goes on. There is no single source to find these buyers in 1 day or 1 week. It takes time. Time to properly prepare your gi for sale (I have a whole separate blog post dedicated toward that, linked here), and time to expose the offering to potential buyers around the globe.

The longer that your gi is out on the market for sale the more people will see it. And the more people that see it increases the probability that you'll find the best, or a better buyer who is ready, willing and able. It's that simple.

How much time you are willing to spend ACTIVELY hunting down a buyer.

The difference between this factor and the previous one is that the other is a passive activity - simply the passage of time. It can't be rushed or shortened. This particular factor is active; it takes both time and effort, and sometimes money. And like anything worthwhile, the more time you spend at it, the more you are likely to get out of it.

On one end of the range, the lower end, you simply take three photos with your cell phone, and post it up on eBay for 10 days and take the highest offer. Does that work? Sure it does. Sometimes. And sometimes you sell it to a reseller who then invests time in your gi and makes a killing. If that's okay with you, then no harm, no foul.

As of the date of this writing a BNIB A2 Shoyoroll Yank gi recently sold for just over $400 on eBay. I know because I was the #2 bidder at $400 and just missed it. Yet less than a month ago I sold my BNIB A2 Yank for $750. And a friend of mine bought a different BNIB A2 Yank, also for $750. So, did that eBay seller achieve maximum value for his gi? I think not. But he will probably never know that.

While I'm not sure how much time the eBay seller actually invested in marketing his gi, I do know that I spent a cumulative amount of time of more than 6 hours over a 2 month period on selling mine. That time was invested in:

  • Taking photos, 
  • Researching and talking directly to targeted prospects,
  • Searching the various online forums on a daily basis,
  • Posting the information on Facebook, Instagram and other online venues,
  • Checking those postings several times a day,
  • Following up with prospects,
  • And more.
This is but one example of how actively hunting for the best buyer can lead to the maximization of value.

And while nearly everyone wants to maximize value when they are selling their personal items, in this case gis, the question that you have to honestly ask yourself is this...do I have the TIME to do all of this to possibly make 10% more, 20% more, 30% more? If so, then go for it. If not, then it might be better to take 10 or 15 minutes, speak with a handful of obvious buyers/resellers and simply cash out of your gi today, and move on without looking back and with no regrets whatsoever.

I have several friends who do just that. They would rather invest those hours with their family, their jiu jitsu, or in their primary business where they make serious money; rather than chasing buyers for their gis to make a few extra nickles.

The size of the gi.

Gi size is one of those factors that some people overlook when trying to estimate the value of a gi. And while in the end it may not be a significant factor in value, if it's not then it will almost always be a significant factor in time.

Let's take a closer look at this.

First we must acknowledge that secondary market pricing is driven by supply-vs.-demand. The greater the supply (in either the primary or secondary market), the lower the demand. And the lower the demand, the lower the value. Conversely, if the supply is lower and demand remains constant, then the value should be higher.

While people come in all shapes and sizes, the majority of grapplers fall into several of Shoyoroll's gi sizes. Those are:
  • Whole Sizes: A1, A2, A3
  • Long Sizes: A1L, A2L
  • Husky Sizes: A2H
  • Fitted Sizes: A1F, A2F
With these 8 sizes, probably 90% or more of the grapplers are covered. And these are, or should be the higher production sizes for any brand.

On the other end of the spectrum are smaller sizes primarily.
  • A0, A00F and A0F
And nothing against grapplers who fit into these size gis. I wish that I did. But oftentimes they are women or even children. And quite frankly women are smarter than men and rarely participate in the secondary market. When they do, they are far better buyers than men and won't pay a nickle more than they feel that they should. Often choosing to wait for a new batch to drop to get their size rather than pay 3x's retail for an older classic or hot, trendy new drop.

And parents are typically smarter when buying for their kids, because the kids will likely outgrow these gis in 6 months to a year and be on to the next size up. This applies to jeans, sneakers, jackets, and all clothing items. Not just gis.

The result is that these smaller sizes tend to max out at a lower value than do the 8 sizes mentioned above. The small percentage of men that fit these gis, are just that: a small percentage, and easily satisfied in the Primary market or early on in the Secondary.

The majority of the reminder are large or tall sizes of:
  • A4, A5, A3L, and A3H
The resistance here is that many grapplers who require these sizes today, will (or hope to) lose weight in the near future making these gis in their rotation too large for them. So why spend a lot of money on the secondary market today for an A5, when you hope to settle into an A4 in a few months? And that happens a lot. 

Of course, there are exceptions to this. I know several A4 and A5 grapplers who have maintained their weight and bulk over many years of training. And they are quite comfortable with their body type and gi size. As such, they are usually among the best buyers for these larger gis. But there are not a lot of them , so if these sizes are overproduced, the secondary market suffers.

There is an odd outlyer here and that is A0H. This size is suffering from it's designation. It's actually just a slightly shorter version of A2. And A2 is the #1 or #2 most popular size among all sizes. I personally know several guys who buy A2 gis and have the cuffs taken in on the pants and sometimes the jacket. They are a PERFECT A0H but they cannott mentally get past that "0" or "H". It sounds like the person who should fit the A0H gi is both short and fat. And that's just not true.

As a result, that size has a bit of a cloud over it, but slowly people are coming around to giving it a try and seeing that the label does not fit the gi. 

Example




As an example, let's just say that today's value of a BNIB, Batch 51 Black Competitor (Japan-only, in-person drop), is between $600 and $1,500. Yes, that's a WIDE RANGE, and for such a difficult gi to locate, the upper-end of the range is likely more than that in reality.

On one end of the spectrum (the low end of $600), if you own a size A0, need the money TODAY, and just don't have time to look around for the right buyer. Then that's the value, or close to it. On the other end of the spectrum you can likely achieve $1,500 or more for that same gi if (a) it's in a higher demand size like A1L or A2, (b) you are in no hurry to sell it, and (c) you are going to spend at least an hour a day, EVERY day (until it sells) hunting for THE BEST buyer.

Short of all three of those, then the value will likely be less than the upper end of the range, $1,500 in this example.

For USED kimonos the value range also depends on other factors. And for the purposes of this conversation, USED means that it was washed at least one time and therefore is no longer BNIB. You can certainly still call a gi "new" if it's been worn just a few times, washed and well cared for. But you cannot call it BNIB and you should disclose how many times you used it and how you washed and dried it. So for any used gi the following factors also come into play.
  • Condition
  • Fading
  • Shrinkage (this is a BIG issue)
  • Missing Parts (like the bag)
  • Stains/Smells (blood & mat stains on the knee are most common here.
  • Rips, holes, pilling



And while some people prefer to purchase used kimonos over new ones, primarily for the purposes of cost savings, the reality is that the buyer pool is not as deep for used kimonos as it is for that same kimono if BNIB. In other words, if there are 10 buyers at any given time looking for a specific kimono if it's BNIB, that number shrinks by 75% or more if the kimono is used. This is for a variety of factors, most of which have to do with the uncertainty of the condition of the kimono, but quite simply some people will never buy a used kimono. It can be that cut and dry.

Even if it has never been rolled in and just washed, those 10 people shrink down to 8 or 7 or less.

Conclusion

That was the long answer to the qustion, "What's my gi worth?" The short answer is always, "It depends." And now you know why.



Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Shoyoroll And The Secondary Market


Increased Production & Changes At Shoyoroll

Lately Shoyoroll has increased production of its gis (from both a # of batches per year and # of units per batch perspective), as well as some of its other offerings such as rash guards. What also must be acknowledged is that Shoyoroll has also:
  • Increased retail prices (for all goods);
  • Increased its “shipping” charges to an amount that is far more than the actual cost of shipping;
  • Opened up some items (like the recent rash guard drop) to a full day long “pre-reserve” where they’ll take any and every order possible over a 7 or 8 hour period;
  • Expanded internationally into Europe/UK and Japan with bases of operations there;
  • Opened up its GUMA program to a expansive number of new people;
  • Launched an independent European GUMA program;
  • Gone as far as offering 2016 UberGuma to FRESHMAN 2015 Guma members. This has upset many hardcore, long-time supporters of Shoyoroll who are pioneer GUMA members from 2012, the only ones offered the elite UberGuma status in its first year, 2015; and
  • Increased its “Sponsored Athlete” program dramatically. This is worthwhile to note because only a small fraction of a percent of those “Sponsored” by Shoyoroll actually are receiving their gis and gear for free. Those people are either the elite of the elite, or the ones who spend time every day on social media promoting the brand. All the other “Sponsored Athletes” PAY for their gis and gear. Sure, it’s at a discount and they don't have to fight the public for drops, but it is still at a huge profit to Shoyoroll; approximately 300% of production cost. So what these people are is really SuperUberGuma members. They are not sponsored by any sense of the imagination.


Why is this and how will it impact Shoyoroll and the secondary market?

The why is pretty simple: to grow the brand both domestically and internationally, increase primary market share and with all of that, increase corporate profitability by depressing the secondary market in favor of the primary market.

Shoyoroll has not been secretive of their dislike of the secondary market. They feel that all the monies going toward purchasing Shoyoroll in the secondary market are capital market monies that should be going to Shoyoroll corporate. And in some sense they are correct. Now, I don’t know if they realize or will acknowledge the positive impact that the secondary market has had on Shoyoroll over the years. But the fact is, it has.



The Impact

The question is…if Shoyoroll continues to saturate the primary market with all these gis (in both # of batches and, like today’s drop, # of units per batch), what will happen?

The immediate impact is that Shoyoroll satisfies the capital market demand via the primary market, leaving nothing for the secondary market. So all the monies go to Shoyoroll, and very little if any go to the secondary market. This will be good for Shoyoroll (in the short term), but bad for resellers and the secondary market.

However, let’s examine these happenings at Shoyoroll one at a time and make logical projections as to how both Shoyoroll and the market will be impacted.

Increase in production - # of Drops

  • With this, if people miss out on today’s drop they know that there will be another drop right around the corner. So there is no need to pay more than retail in the secondary market when they just have to wait a few weeks or a month for the next drop. 
  • More $ for Shoyoroll. 
  • Less $ available for the secondary market. 

Increase in production - # of Units per Batch

  • More gis for more people to purchase in the primary market. This means more $ for Shoyoroll, and few if any buyers looking to the secondary market because the primary offering satisfied the demand. 
  • It also means no resellers (or BJJ’ers looking to flip a single gi (not an official “reseller” by any stretch)), will no longer be buying these batches. 

Increased retail prices

  • More $ for Shoyoroll. 
  • Elevates the value of older batches in the secondary market as well. 
  • Also, will drive away buyers from the brand who are impacted by such high retail prices.
  • Exposes Shoyoroll to competition.
  • Loss of customer base due to numerous less expensive options in the marketplace.

Increased “shipping” charges

  • More $ for Shoyoroll to offset the “other” costs of shipping, such as supplies and increased labor needed for packing and shipping of the gis and gear.
  • Pissed off segment of the market who are already wondering why they are paying $30 for a tee shirt, much less $20 to ship it. 
  • Adds expense to the overall cost of items, resulting in prices beyond the reach of a segment of the market.

Opening up items to a full day long “pre-reserve” 

  • More $ for Shoyoroll.
  • Superior way to determining demand. Hell, it’s better than making 100 units and selling out in 3 seconds. And it’s far better than making 5,000 units and being stuck with 4,500 that didn’t sell. 
  • Completely obliterates any secondary market for that item.

International Expansion (Europe/UK and Japan)

  • Greater visibility and market presence for Shoyoroll.
  • Increased ability to penetrate new and foreign markets.
  • Increased opportunity to build relationships in forging markets with manufacturers, distributors, athletes.

Opened up its GUMA program to a huge number of new people

  • More $ for Shoyoroll (the GUMA fee plus a guaranteed buying public. Guma members tend to buy more than the average ShoyoFan).
  • More predictability for production because GUMA members pre-reserve what they want.
  • Dilution of the elite GUMA membership. 

Launched an independent European GUMA program

  • More $ for Shoyoroll
  • Gives Shoyoroll a captive audience of buyers in Europe and UK
  • Spreads the brand throughout Europe and UK markets
  • Less international buyers looking in the secondary market to make purchases.

Increased 2016 UberGuma Membership

  • Pissed off a lot of life-long, hard-core ShoyoFans
  • I don’t see any upside to this, other than making stronger fans out of those who were offered the elevated membership. 

Increased its “Sponsored Athlete” program dramatically

  • More $ for Shoyoroll (since these athletes purchase their gis and gear at a huge profit to Shoyoroll).
  • Increase market visibility and penetration.
  • Secure long-term loyalty of these athletes to the brand
  • Blocking CTRL and other brands from these sponsorship opportunities

Is Shoyoroll Ready?

One question that I have is this…Is Shoyoroll prepared for life without the secondary market? 

The knee jerk reaction of many is, “OF COURSE. It’s more profitable for Shoyoroll and screw those resellers.”

Well that is true, but if Shoyoroll creates an environment where there is no secondary market, then they better step up their game BIG TIME in a few areas, including:
  • Customer Service
  • Product Quality
  • Quality Control
  • Sizing Consistency

Why is this? 

Well, right now if first time buyer John Q. Roller buys an A2 gi from Shoyoroll based upon their size chart and it doesn’t fit, what does he do? He sells it for a profit on the secondary market and no one is the wiser.

The same goes for Hamid E. Armbar who is an UberGuma member and a solid A1L, however the A1L for this recent batch doesn’t fit like the A1L’s that he is used to. So what does Hamid do? He sells it for a profit on the secondary market and no one is the wiser.



Now, in both of these cases Shoyoroll is not impacted by their all-well-to-known sizing discrepancies from batch to batch and even within the same batches. Why? Because the “out” for these ill-fitting gis is a simple trip to the secondary market. BUT, if there IS NO SECONDARY MARKET, then Shoyroll will be DELUGED in returns.

For years I’ve seen post-after-post and comment-after-comment in various groups on Facebook that all say the same thing…. “I’m selling because it doesn’t fit….” And many of those posting are not new to Shoyoroll. In fact many are from the ShoyoTroll gang who so often promote their love of the brand…but I guarantee will be the FIRST in line at the return counter when there is no more secondary market. #becarefulwhatyouwishforsucka

Then there is Product Quality. Well, we all know about those V1 and V2 Absolute pants that ripped open like they were made of cotton balls from Wal-Mart. In the beginning, Shoyoroll was replacing those pants. Then they made a whole new batch of replacement pants because it was happening so often. Later, when they got tired of replacing the pants they simply stopped returning emails and inquiries from customers. Many of whom were long-term customers of the brand, and even UberGuma members. Basically, they started to ignore people. And that’s never a good thing.

Ultimately, most of these now-ignored, Absolute-pants-turned-into-shorts-wearing ShoyoFans have just moved on and written it off because OVERALL, they make $ in the secondary market and don’t want to piss off Shoyoroll. Well, if there IS NO SECONDARY MARKET then these bare-kneed, unhappy customers will NOT just write it off and will work with PayPal or their credit card company to get a refund.

How about Quality Control?
  • Ever see an Americana with the hip patch of a Compadre?
    • I have had two of them. 
  • Ever have a gi show up that’s missing a patch? 
    • I have one here right now. 
  • Ever have a BNIB gi be delivered that has mismatched sized top and pants? 
    • It happens. 
  • Ever have a gi land on your doorstep that has some damage? 
    • Sure have. 
  • Ever have a gi show up where the colored embroidery is already bleeding into the white gi?
    • Sure have. Got one right here. 
  • Did you get one of the SGT bags that didn’t have any Velcro? 
    • Yep. Sure did. 
  • Ever order an A2H and an A2 arrives? 
    • Yep, sure have. 
  • Ever pay nearly $100 for a rash guard, only to have an obvious, visible defect in the sublimation? 
    • Yes sir. Sure have. 
  • And on, and on it goes. It’s part of being a large company with poor quality control. 

And right now…in ALL OF THE above instances the problem is taken care of by the Secondary Market. But if there is no secondary market, most of those gis or rash guards will be returned for a refund or replacement. And as they've demonstrated time and time again, they are not prepared for this. Not in the least bit. And that's understandable because up until now they haven't needed to be.

As far as Sizing Consistency goes…well that’s a dirty little secret that many people don’t talk about but are aware of. I just sold an Olive Undefeated to a friend. This is his second. And they are both the same size yet they fit differently. Same batch, same size, same body. Different fit. And that’s WITHIN the same batch. From one batch to the next, Shoyoroll is well known for its sizing discrepancy.

I had an A2 Americana…fit WONDERFULLY. That’s batch 10. Then I got a Rio Koi, Batch 12. Tight as a virgin. Same size, but didn’t fit.

Then I got a Batch 17 Competitor, also Size A2. HAD TO BE an A3. Friggin’ HUGE. I was swimming. Measurements were WAY off from other A2's that I had. Even of the same batch.

Then the Batch 16 Forever Rolls hit my doorstep. Shrunk to a hand puppet after the first wash.

Most of these sizing discrepancies are well known in the Shoyoroll community and as such, accepted. We’ve learned to buy a size up with the Rolls for example. And we don’t worry about the Rio Koi not fitting like the prior batch because it’s an easy flip for a profit.

I had this same discussion with a friend close to Shoyoroll once. And his comment hit the nail on the head. He said,


“The secondary market allows him to run a shitty business.”

And that really sums it up. And sadly so.

Finally

If Shoyoroll continues on its path to squash the secondary market, so be it. That’s their choice. Personally I don’t give a hoot because I’m on to a much larger and more meaningful endeavor no matter what they do. But they better be prepared for what happens next.

In life, we can choose our actions but we can’t choose the consequences of those actions. Shoyoroll best learn that lesson quickly because the American landscape is littered with the corpses of once profitable and often dominant business that failed to recognize when internal change was needed.

Update

In the Shoyoroll Drama Free Facebook group, one astute member recently asked (in so many words):

How does Shoyoroll's increased production bode poorly for those of us who actually like to buy these gis to train in? If the primary market produces enough gis to negate the secondary market, then the average BJJ'er who is also a ShoyoFan won't have to pay ridiculous prices on the Secondary market to get one. Shoyoroll was never about flipping gis, they're about the Jiu jitsu. 

In response I'd say this:

There is no question that these drops of large numbers of units is in favor of the consumer. Especially if prices come down due to oversupply. But there is no indication of that yet on the retail or the secondary market, except for these large drops where there is no secondary market.

That being said, in looking at this situation from a business perspective it is possible for more than one path to be viable and financially successful. The question for Shoyoroll is this:

Do you want to be Calvin Klein? Or do you want to be Fruit Of The Loom? Because right now, with these increased numbers they're headed in the direction of Fruit Of The Loom.

Sure, both make money, but the buyers for one are not the buyers for the other. And for years Shoyoroll has been more like the Calvin Klein of jiu jitsu gis. If they want to compete with Fuji, then go right ahead. But the buyers are different.

And which if these two is the rebel? And which is mainstream?






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